By Jim Pedley

Special to Sporting News NASCAR Wire Service

(July 1, 2010)

Based on recent history, one would think that Jamie McMurray has got to be a solid candidate to win this Saturday’s Coke Zero 400 Sprint Cup race.

It is, after all, to be held on the same Daytona International Speedway track where McMurray won just five months ago. And, McMurray will be in the same No. 1 Earnhardt Ganassi Racing Chevrolet—or a reasonable facsimile of it—he drove to victory there in February.

Or will it be all the same?

Not really. In fact, not even close.

Daytona Cup race No. 2 in 2010 will be a whole different deal and not just for McMurray. All teams and drivers arrived at DIS this week under a completely different set of circumstances: The track will be different and the cars will be different.

The track is always different in July than it is in February for the 500. The hot, humid Florida weather makes the surface slicker and trickier. But this year, teams will have to deal with a surface so bumpy and so brittle that it is breaking up so badly that the decision has been made to repave it before next year’s Speedweeks.

Teams have been pondering that situation for weeks and considering how it will affect their duties.

“I think,” said Tony Gibson, crew chief for Ryan Newman’s car, “a guy who goes down there with an extremely fast car may not be the guy who wins the race. At the end, I think it’s going to come down to handling. That’s going to be more important than ever because the racetrack is real abrasive and it’s coming apart and it’s bumpy and it’s rough. Trying to stay ahead of that thing is going to be the key.”

Then there are the cars.

When McMurray wheeled his into Victory Lane on the frontstretch at DIS in February, it had a big wing sitting on the rear deck lid. This time around, the cars will have vertical blade spoilers on their backs.

The changes for drivers and teams because of the switch to spoilers will be huge.

“It’s going to add quite a bit more drag to the cars,” Penske Racing driver Kurt Busch said. “So it’ll slow them down. Hopefully it won’t upset the balance too much as to front downforce to rear downforce. That’s what we have to keep track of. If we add too much to the rear, then the cars are going to get really tight.”

But it will not be spoilers alone which will be changed this time around.

NASCAR has decided to implement use of restrictor plates with bigger breather holes in them for this race. In fact, the plates will have the biggest holes ever in them at Daytona—1 and 1/32nd inches.

That will mean much more horsepower and all the excitement that can go along with it at superspeedways.

McMurray said, “It will be interesting to see how the cars react to the larger restrictor plate.”

When racers used the word “interesting” in relation to circumstances or changes in their sport, they sometimes mean “crazy.”

With vertical spoilers and bigger plates in place, crazy could be the order of the day Saturday night.

“I don’t think anybody knows how fast we are going to run,” Gibson said. “The horsepower is going to be up with this plate change. We’re probably going to have about 40 more horsepower than we had before and, with the spoiler, there’s quite a bit of drag added on. I think NASCAR is hoping it balances out to be a good compromise.

“I think it’s fine when these cars are out there by themselves, but when you put them out there in the draft, those blades are going to make huge holes in the air and guys are going to get huge runs. I think you’re going to see really fast drafting speeds. I really, really look for a really exciting race.”

Fast facts

What: Coke Zero 400

Where: Daytona International Speedway

When: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET

TV: TNT, 6:30 p.m. ET

Radio: MRN/Sirius Satellite Ch. 128

Track layout: 2.5-mile tri-oval

Race distance: 160 laps/400 miles

Estimated pit window: 36-38 laps

Qualifying: Friday, 4:10 p.m. ET

2009 winner: Tony Stewart

2009 polesitter: Tony Stewart (rainout)

Points leaders: 1. Kevin Harvick, 2,489; 2. Jimmie Johnson, 2,384; 3. Kyle Busch, 2,328; 4. Denny Hamlin, 2,304; 5. Jeff Gordon, 2,302; 6. Kurt Busch, 2,288; 7. Matt Kenseth, 2,204; 8. Jeff Burton, 2,159; 9. Tony Stewart, 2,158; 10. Greg Biffle, 2,126; 11. Mark Martin, 2,047; 12. Carl Edwards, 2,020; 13. Dale Earnhardt Jr., 2,017; 14. Ryan Newman, 2,005; 15. Clint Bowyer, 2,004.